← 家家美樂地 8月23日 Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at 家家美樂地 8月23日 Store Championship
decks
3
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-10-2
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1232
· median 1276
· range 1068–1353
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1245
Q3 1387
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 33.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.9% | -9.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.6% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
